As we approach the 40th anniversary of Robert Kennedy’s death on June 6th, and in the context of the troubled times that we live in, it is fitting that we celebrate the positive influence that one person can have on public discourse and national and international policy.
In his book, “1968 – The Year the Dream Died”, author Jules Witcover pinpoints 1968 “…as a cataclysmic year of turmoil and violence, presidential surprises and escalating war that set a shaken nation on a course of disappointment, racial division, and distrust in leadership that persists until today”. Having been involved in many of the early decisions during his brother’s presidency, by 1967 RFK had broken sharply from President Johnson on America’s commitment to the war in Vietnam. After a depressed and beleaguered LBJ announced in March 1968 that he would not seek his party’s nomination for President, the way was clear for Kennedy to run on a message of change, hope and unity.
The campaign lasted 82 days. Kennedy was murdered at the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles on June 6th 1968 shortly after giving a speech in response to his victory that night in the California primary. In 2008 we have another charismatic leader campaigning on a similar message of hope and change. Hopefully the dreams of a country 40 years ago will finally come to fruition in Barack Obama.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
The Presumptive Nominee?
“There are times in politics when you must be on the right side, and lose” – John Kenneth Galbraith, economist, liberal and U.S. Ambassador to India 1961- 1963
In the race for the Democratic nomination for President, the political obituaries are being written for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Her blowout loss by 15 points and razor thin victory (by 14,000 votes) to Senator Obama in the North Carolina and Indiana primaries respectively on May 6th, will likely prove to be the last battleground where the former First Lady had an opportunity to, in her words, create a “game-changer” and reverse the momentum towards Obama.
In the words of Thomas Edsall of The Huffington Post, “…Hillary Clinton, who for seven weeks has crawled, kicked and bitten her way back into contention, suffered a blow on Tuesday, halting the momentum behind her bid for the nomination just when she had begun to regain credibility. In the universe of political clichés, she is on life support, her oxygen choked off, her knees buckling, unable to stanch the bleeding, down for an eight count, on the ropes, praying for the bell to ring, desperate to get her wind back”.
Having won an impressive 9.5% victory in Pennsylvania on March 22nd, and having finally found her voice on the campaign trail (in the view of many commentators), hopes were high in the Clinton camp that they could engineer a set of results in North Carolina and Indiana that would blow open the race for the nomination. And, in the weeks leading up to election-day in both states, Hillary Clinton had every reason to feel optimistic. After months of struggling to find her message, Clinton had recently been connecting with voters in a way not seen before on the campaign trail, she was energized and in her zone, running on adrenalin and drawing sharp contrasts with her Democratic opponent. Clinton knew that she had to radically change the dynamic in order the stop the steady drip-drip of super-delegates declaring for Obama. The only way to do that was to win a landslide in Indiana and come very close to causing an upset in North Carolina.
Obama, on the other hand, had just come out of the worst three weeks of his campaign. 24/7 cable news coverage of the comments made by his former pastor, Rev Jeremiah Wright, called into doubt Obama’s judgment in some quarters, forcing him to spend big chunks of time managing the Wright crisis, time he would much preferred to have devoted to substantive policy discussions.
Throw into the mix the call by conservative Republican talk show host Rush Limbaugh to hijack the Indiana primary by encouraging white voters who are registered as Republicans (and who more than likely will vote for McCain in November) to cast their primary vote for Clinton (Indiana is an open state allowing any registered voter, regardless of party, to vote in the Democratic primary). The logic of Limbaugh’s argument is that he believes Clinton is the preferred Democratic nominee for Republicans in November as they feel they would have a far better chance of beating Hillary than Barack. Limbaugh called his campaign “Operation Chaos”.
When the dust settled the night of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, it was clear that Obama had won a landslide victory in North Carolina. The Indiana results showed that 11% of the people who cast a ballot were actually Republicans who came over to vote in the Democratic primary. Of those, 52% voted for Clinton. When you study the numbers it shows that 1.275 million people voted in the Indiana primary. 11% of that number is approximately 140,000. Clinton won 52% of the Republican cross over vote, guaranteeing roughly 72,000 votes. When you crunch the final numbers and see that Clinton won Indiana by a little over 14,000 votes, the Limbaugh “Operation Chaos” strategy may well have played a significant part in Clinton’s narrow victory.
In the days since the May 6th primaries the steady drip-drip of super-delegates to Obama has increased in speed to the point where as I write Obama has passed Clinton for the first time in pledged super-delegate support. Baring a catastrophic scandal of some kind that would derail the Obama candidacy or an act of GOD, nearly every commentator, and more ominously for Clinton, politicians that have been previously silent, have started to refer to Obama as the presumptive nominee. Clinton is ignoring calls for her to drop out of the race and it is very likely that both candidates will keenly contest the six remaining primaries in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota between now and the end of the election cycle on June 3rd. In these states, Clinton is favored in 3 and Obama in 3, the most likely result being a fairly even split of the remaining delegates.
In the media, much is being made of the fact that Clinton may be hedging her bets for a place on the ticket with Obama as his VP running mate. While a joint Obama-Clinton ticket would be formidable there seems little appetite for the idea in the Obama camp and also among the Democratic leadership. In recent weeks Nancy Pelosi (Speaker of the House) and senior senators Chris Dodd and Ted Kennedy have vetoed the idea, citing irreconcilable differences (among other reasons) caused by the bad blood in the primary season.
Regardless of how the remaining primaries play out, the most important thing for Democrats to do in the coming weeks is to unite quickly and strongly behind the eventual nominee. A vote for John McCain in November is akin to a third Bush term. There is no doubt that the Republican attack machine will kick into overdrive once the Democratic nominee is confirmed and the general election campaign is likely to be bitter and bloody. I am confident however that if Obama is the Democratic nominee, Americans will seize this moment in history to make history.
For the latest delegate numbers (both elected delegates and super-delegates) go to http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/
In the race for the Democratic nomination for President, the political obituaries are being written for Hillary Rodham Clinton. Her blowout loss by 15 points and razor thin victory (by 14,000 votes) to Senator Obama in the North Carolina and Indiana primaries respectively on May 6th, will likely prove to be the last battleground where the former First Lady had an opportunity to, in her words, create a “game-changer” and reverse the momentum towards Obama.
In the words of Thomas Edsall of The Huffington Post, “…Hillary Clinton, who for seven weeks has crawled, kicked and bitten her way back into contention, suffered a blow on Tuesday, halting the momentum behind her bid for the nomination just when she had begun to regain credibility. In the universe of political clichés, she is on life support, her oxygen choked off, her knees buckling, unable to stanch the bleeding, down for an eight count, on the ropes, praying for the bell to ring, desperate to get her wind back”.
Having won an impressive 9.5% victory in Pennsylvania on March 22nd, and having finally found her voice on the campaign trail (in the view of many commentators), hopes were high in the Clinton camp that they could engineer a set of results in North Carolina and Indiana that would blow open the race for the nomination. And, in the weeks leading up to election-day in both states, Hillary Clinton had every reason to feel optimistic. After months of struggling to find her message, Clinton had recently been connecting with voters in a way not seen before on the campaign trail, she was energized and in her zone, running on adrenalin and drawing sharp contrasts with her Democratic opponent. Clinton knew that she had to radically change the dynamic in order the stop the steady drip-drip of super-delegates declaring for Obama. The only way to do that was to win a landslide in Indiana and come very close to causing an upset in North Carolina.
Obama, on the other hand, had just come out of the worst three weeks of his campaign. 24/7 cable news coverage of the comments made by his former pastor, Rev Jeremiah Wright, called into doubt Obama’s judgment in some quarters, forcing him to spend big chunks of time managing the Wright crisis, time he would much preferred to have devoted to substantive policy discussions.
Throw into the mix the call by conservative Republican talk show host Rush Limbaugh to hijack the Indiana primary by encouraging white voters who are registered as Republicans (and who more than likely will vote for McCain in November) to cast their primary vote for Clinton (Indiana is an open state allowing any registered voter, regardless of party, to vote in the Democratic primary). The logic of Limbaugh’s argument is that he believes Clinton is the preferred Democratic nominee for Republicans in November as they feel they would have a far better chance of beating Hillary than Barack. Limbaugh called his campaign “Operation Chaos”.
When the dust settled the night of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, it was clear that Obama had won a landslide victory in North Carolina. The Indiana results showed that 11% of the people who cast a ballot were actually Republicans who came over to vote in the Democratic primary. Of those, 52% voted for Clinton. When you study the numbers it shows that 1.275 million people voted in the Indiana primary. 11% of that number is approximately 140,000. Clinton won 52% of the Republican cross over vote, guaranteeing roughly 72,000 votes. When you crunch the final numbers and see that Clinton won Indiana by a little over 14,000 votes, the Limbaugh “Operation Chaos” strategy may well have played a significant part in Clinton’s narrow victory.
In the days since the May 6th primaries the steady drip-drip of super-delegates to Obama has increased in speed to the point where as I write Obama has passed Clinton for the first time in pledged super-delegate support. Baring a catastrophic scandal of some kind that would derail the Obama candidacy or an act of GOD, nearly every commentator, and more ominously for Clinton, politicians that have been previously silent, have started to refer to Obama as the presumptive nominee. Clinton is ignoring calls for her to drop out of the race and it is very likely that both candidates will keenly contest the six remaining primaries in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota between now and the end of the election cycle on June 3rd. In these states, Clinton is favored in 3 and Obama in 3, the most likely result being a fairly even split of the remaining delegates.
In the media, much is being made of the fact that Clinton may be hedging her bets for a place on the ticket with Obama as his VP running mate. While a joint Obama-Clinton ticket would be formidable there seems little appetite for the idea in the Obama camp and also among the Democratic leadership. In recent weeks Nancy Pelosi (Speaker of the House) and senior senators Chris Dodd and Ted Kennedy have vetoed the idea, citing irreconcilable differences (among other reasons) caused by the bad blood in the primary season.
Regardless of how the remaining primaries play out, the most important thing for Democrats to do in the coming weeks is to unite quickly and strongly behind the eventual nominee. A vote for John McCain in November is akin to a third Bush term. There is no doubt that the Republican attack machine will kick into overdrive once the Democratic nominee is confirmed and the general election campaign is likely to be bitter and bloody. I am confident however that if Obama is the Democratic nominee, Americans will seize this moment in history to make history.
For the latest delegate numbers (both elected delegates and super-delegates) go to http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/
Monday, May 5, 2008
The Beginning of the End?
As I write, we are approximately 24 hours away from knowing the outcome of the latest series of Democratic primary battles between Senators Clinton and Obama. With a total 187 elected delegates (not including super-deleagtes) up for grabs, voters in the states of Indiana and North Carolina will go to the polls tomorrow in an effort to edge their preferred candidate one step closer to their party's nomination. There are a number of potential scenarios that could play out, and each would provide a different result:
1. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. The latest opinion polls from both states (and I should of course point out that opinion polls during this election cycle have been notoriously unreliable) show Clinton leading by approximately 5/6 points in Indiana and Obama up about 8 points in North Carolina. Assuming the final results somewhat mirror the polls, the race will go on until the final primaries on June 3rd. A 1-1 spilt doesn't really help Clinton but it does edge Obama one step closer to the nomination. It's all about the delegate mathematics at this point and a (roughly) event spilt in the delegates will not be enough for Clinton to force the superdelegates into second guessing their endorsement of Obama.
2. Should Obama win North Carolina and squeeze an upset in Indiana there will be intense pressure on Hillary Clinton to fold up her tent, endorse Obama and work with the nominee to heal the divisions caused by a divisive campaign. While Clinton would probably want to continue the primary fight until the end, the pressure on her to step aside will come from members of the Democratic leadership and a combination of committed and uncommitted superdelegates. In addition, and perhaps mostly importantly, a 0 for 2 defeat for Clinton would send donors running for the hills. For a campaign that is already in debt and struggling to come anywhere near Obama in terms of fundraising, a defeat for Clinton in North Carolina and Indiana might force her hand.
3. A victory for Clinton in both states, and thereby causing a big upset in North Carolina, could be a potential game changer. I say potential because at this point, according to most political commentators, Obama looks odds on to get the nomination, it being just a matter of time before it becomes a fait accompli. A Clinton 2 for 2 victory tomorrow would probably cause many uncommitted superdelegates (who may have been leaning towards Obama) to take stock and perhaps reconsider. It would also help Clinton tremendously in terms of fundraising and the never ending 24/7 cable news PR battle between both candidates.
Readers of this blog know that I am firmly in the Obama camp. While scenario 3 is the best result for Clinton, it is arguably the worst result for the Democratic Party, in terms of calling time on when the real battle can begin with Republican nominee John McCain.
Stay tuned.
1. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. The latest opinion polls from both states (and I should of course point out that opinion polls during this election cycle have been notoriously unreliable) show Clinton leading by approximately 5/6 points in Indiana and Obama up about 8 points in North Carolina. Assuming the final results somewhat mirror the polls, the race will go on until the final primaries on June 3rd. A 1-1 spilt doesn't really help Clinton but it does edge Obama one step closer to the nomination. It's all about the delegate mathematics at this point and a (roughly) event spilt in the delegates will not be enough for Clinton to force the superdelegates into second guessing their endorsement of Obama.
2. Should Obama win North Carolina and squeeze an upset in Indiana there will be intense pressure on Hillary Clinton to fold up her tent, endorse Obama and work with the nominee to heal the divisions caused by a divisive campaign. While Clinton would probably want to continue the primary fight until the end, the pressure on her to step aside will come from members of the Democratic leadership and a combination of committed and uncommitted superdelegates. In addition, and perhaps mostly importantly, a 0 for 2 defeat for Clinton would send donors running for the hills. For a campaign that is already in debt and struggling to come anywhere near Obama in terms of fundraising, a defeat for Clinton in North Carolina and Indiana might force her hand.
3. A victory for Clinton in both states, and thereby causing a big upset in North Carolina, could be a potential game changer. I say potential because at this point, according to most political commentators, Obama looks odds on to get the nomination, it being just a matter of time before it becomes a fait accompli. A Clinton 2 for 2 victory tomorrow would probably cause many uncommitted superdelegates (who may have been leaning towards Obama) to take stock and perhaps reconsider. It would also help Clinton tremendously in terms of fundraising and the never ending 24/7 cable news PR battle between both candidates.
Readers of this blog know that I am firmly in the Obama camp. While scenario 3 is the best result for Clinton, it is arguably the worst result for the Democratic Party, in terms of calling time on when the real battle can begin with Republican nominee John McCain.
Stay tuned.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
