Why The Next 30 Days Will Decide Who is President...

“Politics is supposed to be the second oldest profession. I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first” – Ronald Reagan, 40th President of the United States

Whew! They say a week is a long time in politics. Well, in the context of the 2008 presidential election campaign, and in particular the events of the first half of January, perhaps the word “week” should be replaced with the word “day”. With still nearly eleven months to go before voters go to the polls in November, the election cycle to decide who will be America’s 44th president has already been one of the longest in history. Whatever happened to elections where politicians announced their candidacy in the actual year that the election was to take place? By the time the party conventions roll around in the summer some of the candidates will have been running for close on 2 years. That being said, for political junkies like me; the excitement, nervousness and near daily intoxication with the rough and tumble of the various campaigns is in equal part educational and inspiring. It is fascinating to watch how some candidates mature, find their groove and evolve into genuine presidential contenders, while others self destruct.

It is fair to say that by February 5th, the date when 23 different states will go to the polls in primary elections in what is being dubbed “Super-Duper Tuesday”; it should be clear who the respective party nominees for President are likely to be. The current election cycle has been made more exciting than normal because the date for many of the state primaries have been brought forward in some cases by a couple of weeks, the impact on the campaign being that there will be a primary every week in January, leading up to the big nationwide vote on February 5th. For those of you who haven’t been watching as closely as I have let me walk you through the events of the past few weeks and also try and set the scene for the upcoming crucial February 5th battle.

Firstly, let’s start with the Democrats. For many months, there has been a friendly debate going on in my house. While my wife admires Senator Obama tremendously she is leaning towards voting for Senator Clinton. I on the other hand am firmly in the Obama corner. I genuinely believe that Obama is the most gifted and inspiring politician to emerge in a generation. For the first time in my life I have contributed to a political campaign and will actively be involved in helping here locally in San Francisco. This, despite the fact even though I have full legal status here, I am not yet a citizen, and as such cannot vote. Senators' Obama and Clinton closed out 2007 with record breaking fund raising years, both scooping up in excess of $100M in campaign cash. In an era when television advertising is an important part of connecting with voters, candidates with a significant war chest will have a distinct edge over their competitors.

Two weeks into January and the battle on the Democratic side is essentially a two horse race. Senator Obama stunned the Clinton campaign by winning the first electoral test of the primary season by securing victory in the Iowa caucuses that were held on January 3rd. John Edwards, who is running on a populist message of fundamental Washington reform and equality for all Americans, narrowly beat out Hillary Clinton to claim second spot in Iowa. Obama’s victory in Iowa is hugely significant for many reasons, none more so that it showed Americans, and black Americans in particular, that an African American candidate could win a state like Iowa, which is 98% white. Many within the black community have withheld their public support for Obama until they could be convinced that he has a realistic chance of beating an establishment white candidate called Clinton.

His wide margin of victory in Iowa (9% points) and narrow defeat in New Hampshire to Senator Clinton (3%) has released a tidal wave of support and endorsements from right across the political spectrum for Obama’s candidacy.

In the last 2 weeks, Senators Biden and Dodd as well as New Mexico governor Bill Richardson have all dropped out of the race, without endorsing any particular candidate. This may be seen by some as a rejection of Clinton as in any other election year a candidate as well known and respected as Hillary Clinton would be expected to receive the endorsements of long standing and respected politicians like Messrs Biden, Dodd and Richardson. The net impact of Obama’s candidacy is such that these seasoned politicians are keeping their powder dry, no doubt looking to November and beyond, hoping to secure a senior cabinet position. Naturally enough they don’t want to back the wrong horse.

While John Edwards continues to plow ahead after a 2nd and 3rd placing in the first two primaries, the next two weeks will decide whether he has the support and the finances to continue. The next primary battles are in Nevada on January 19th and South Carolina on Jan 26th. These are fascinating contests because for the first time in this election cycle a significant percentage of the voting public will be minorities. A large portion of the Nevada voters will be members of the Culinary Union, the men and women who work in the bars, restaurants and hotels on the Las Vegas strip. Many of these folks are Latino, African American and Asian and how they vote will provide an interesting insight into how minorities across the country might vote on February 5th. Likewise in South Carolina, 50% of all Democratic voters in the upcoming primary are African American.

In any other year, with a Clinton on the ballot, Hillary Clinton would gobble up the majority of the black vote as the Clintons have a very strong following within the African American community. The problem for the Clinton campaign of course is that after Obama’s win in Iowa and close second in New Hampshire, many black Americans now genuinely feel that for the first time ever, there is a possibility of not only having an African American as a party nominee, but possibly as President. The key to success in South Carolina is how the black community votes. While John Edwards is a native son in South Carolina, and he is still a very popular candidate, the real battle is between Obama and Clinton. My instincts tell me that if African Americans come out in large numbers for Obama in South Carolina, their brothers and sisters across the country will follow suit on February 5th.

So, we come to February 5th itself. On “Super-Duper Tuesday”, 23 states will vote, including many of the big states like New York, Florida, New Jersey and my own state of California. Once we know how people voted, the nominee should become clear.

On the Republican side, this is still anyone’s nomination. Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas came from nowhere to win the Iowa caucuses, beating out former Massachusetts governor and long time leader in the Iowa polls, Mitt Romney, this despite the fact that Romney outspent Huckabee 10-1 in the state. John McCain repeated his feat of 2000 by again winning the New Hampshire primary, appealing to many Independent voters who are sick of Bush but who like the experience and credentials of ex Marine McCain. The Michigan primary will be decided on January 15th and as I write it is a toss-up between Romney and McCain for victory there. Romney’s father was governor of Michigan in the 1960’s and no doubt is depending on a combination of family loyalty and familiarity to get him over the end line. Should Romney lose in Michigan, I believe his candidacy is finished, despite all the money he has.

The South Carolina Republican primary will take place on the same date as the Democratic causus in Nevada, January 19th. Early polls show Mike Huckabee leading in South Carolina, most probably because of his appeal to his Christian fundamentalist brethren in the South; however it essentially will be a dead heat between Huckabee and the man whose character was destroyed in the Carolinas in 2000 by the Bush campaign, John McCain. That one is worth watching. The one name I haven’t mentioned of course is Rudy Giuliani.

In a bizarre and highly risky strategy, Giuliani essentially skipped the first four primaries (although he has attended debates and done some canvassing), deciding instead to focus all his energies and money on winning his first primary in Florida and using that as the springboard to secure the nomination on February 5th. The problem that faces Giuliani, is that as of today, he is locked in a statistical dead heat with John McCain for Florida. In addition, the top dozen of Giuliani’s staffers have been asked to forego their salaries for the month of January. If Giuliani loses Florida I think he is toast.

Go Obama!