The Beginning of the End?

As I write, we are approximately 24 hours away from knowing the outcome of the latest series of Democratic primary battles between Senators Clinton and Obama. With a total 187 elected delegates (not including super-deleagtes) up for grabs, voters in the states of Indiana and North Carolina will go to the polls tomorrow in an effort to edge their preferred candidate one step closer to their party's nomination. There are a number of potential scenarios that could play out, and each would provide a different result:

1. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. The latest opinion polls from both states (and I should of course point out that opinion polls during this election cycle have been notoriously unreliable) show Clinton leading by approximately 5/6 points in Indiana and Obama up about 8 points in North Carolina. Assuming the final results somewhat mirror the polls, the race will go on until the final primaries on June 3rd. A 1-1 spilt doesn't really help Clinton but it does edge Obama one step closer to the nomination. It's all about the delegate mathematics at this point and a (roughly) event spilt in the delegates will not be enough for Clinton to force the superdelegates into second guessing their endorsement of Obama.

2. Should Obama win North Carolina and squeeze an upset in Indiana there will be intense pressure on Hillary Clinton to fold up her tent, endorse Obama and work with the nominee to heal the divisions caused by a divisive campaign. While Clinton would probably want to continue the primary fight until the end, the pressure on her to step aside will come from members of the Democratic leadership and a combination of committed and uncommitted superdelegates. In addition, and perhaps mostly importantly, a 0 for 2 defeat for Clinton would send donors running for the hills. For a campaign that is already in debt and struggling to come anywhere near Obama in terms of fundraising, a defeat for Clinton in North Carolina and Indiana might force her hand.

3. A victory for Clinton in both states, and thereby causing a big upset in North Carolina, could be a potential game changer. I say potential because at this point, according to most political commentators, Obama looks odds on to get the nomination, it being just a matter of time before it becomes a fait accompli. A Clinton 2 for 2 victory tomorrow would probably cause many uncommitted superdelegates (who may have been leaning towards Obama) to take stock and perhaps reconsider. It would also help Clinton tremendously in terms of fundraising and the never ending 24/7 cable news PR battle between both candidates.

Readers of this blog know that I am firmly in the Obama camp. While scenario 3 is the best result for Clinton, it is arguably the worst result for the Democratic Party, in terms of calling time on when the real battle can begin with Republican nominee John McCain.

Stay tuned.