In the air, the heirs apparent - VP roundup...

The Vice Presidency isn’t worth a pitcher of warm piss” – John Nance Garner 1868-1967, 32nd Vice President of the United States (to President Franklin D. Roosevelt)

As I write I am sitting on an Aer Lingus flight from Dublin to San Francisco. After spending a couple of weeks in Ireland and Amsterdam, it is clear that it is not only Americans that are dissecting the latest 2008 vice-presidential news. The vast majority of people I chatted with at home about the VP selections are adamant in their evaluation of both running mates, i.e. that Joe Biden was a well vetted and excellent choice, Sarah Palin a hastily chosen and poor one.

For the Democrats, after a six month-long primary battle and months of rampant speculation as to who Barack Obama would choose as his running mate, finally it’s Joe Biden. In my last dispatch I commented that the smart money for Barack Obama’s Vice-Presidential running mate was being placed on a trio of candidates; Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, Governor Tom Kaine of Virginia and six time Delaware senator Biden.

While both Bayh and Kaine are rising stars in the Democratic Party, they were ultimately seen by many Washington commentators are unlikely running mates, for a number of reasons:

1. Obama owns the “Change” message. Political savvy and JFK charisma aside, the fact that Obama has a very good chance of being elected America’s first black president is change enough for many people in the United States. In adding Bayh or Kaine to the ticket, many believed that an Obama/Bayh or an Obama/Kaine combination would be “too new” or “too much change” for some Americans (especially Independents or moderate Republicans who have been swayed to possibly vote Democrat in 2008 through a combination of Obama’s genuine appeal and their disgust with the Republican brand) and would therefore dilute Obama’s chances of beating McCain.

2. While being reasonably experienced domestic politicians neither Bayh nor Kaine have any foreign policy experience. The selection of Joe Biden negates any concerns that Independents, middle of the road Republicans and even some Democrats may have had about Obama’s foreign policy credentials.

The selection of Joe Biden has re-energized the Democratic base after a long and sometimes bitter primary campaign battle between Obama and Clinton for the nomination. A senator since 1973 (when he was elected at the constitutionally permitted age of 30), Biden’s fingerprints can be found on transformative legislation on everything from drug policy, civil liberties and violent crime to crime prevention and the protection of women from domestic violence. He has met with, and negotiated with dozens of international leaders and heads of state and is widely recognized as one of America’s foremost foreign policy experts.

From a campaign perspective watch for Biden to be the “bad cop” of the Democratic ticket, the attack dog who can and will go aggressively on the offensive against John McCain, while Barack Obama can continue to be statesmanlike and remain above the fray. Biden is a strong debater and a good orator (and has in fact been known for his verbosity over the years); skills honed after six successful Senate campaigns, two presidential bids (1988 and 2008) and chairmanships of the Senate Judiciary and Foreign Relations Committees. He will, in my opinion, be an effective running mate on the campaign trail in the run up to November 4th and expect him to shine in the Vice Presidential debate with Sarah Palin.

Which brings us to Sarah Palin. If you are asking yourself, Sarah who? - you are probably asking yourself the same question that 98% of Americans asked themselves a number of weeks ago when John McCain made what I believe will turn out to be one of his worst errors of judgment in naming Palin as his vice presidential running mate. Prior to being elected governor of Alaska (population 670,000, one third the size of Dublin) 18 months ago, Palin’s only other executive experience was as mayor of a tiny town in rural Alaska called Wasilla (population 7,500, one quarter the size of Ennis). One can only wonder what McCain was thinking of when picking Palin as his running mate, but then again he perhaps didn’t have much say in the matter.

Every dog in the street knows that McCain’s number one choice for the VP job was Democratic turncoat and fellow war hawk, Joe Liebermann. The problem with Liebermann (from the perspective of being accepted by the Republican establishment and party faithful) is that he is in favor of a woman’s right to choose. This sealed his fate with the religious conservative base of the Republican Party. McCain, rather than stand by his principals and demonstrate some of the so-called change that he is talking about bringing to Washington, he once again sold his soul to the right wing lunatic fringe of his party. In the view of many, he turned in desperation to Palin, a woman he had only met twice previously in his life.

In choosing Palin as his running mate, McCain possibly felt that he could slow down Obama’s momentum in one of two ways:

1. By adding a woman to the ticket, something that Obama had the opportunity to do and did not, McCain hoped to wrestle the mantle of the change message away from Obama.

2. McCain hoped that by naming Palin as his VP he could sway many of the female voters that had enthusiastically supported Hillary Clinton (and who still felt bruised after losing the close primary fight for the nomination) into supporting a Republican ticket.

Despite an initial bounce in the polls after the Republican convention, the luster of the Palin pick has died almost as quickly as it generated a flurry of excitement in the week after McCain announced her as his running mate, and the polls again show Obama with a 4%-5% lead. She has granted only two interviews since her nomination, a tactic deployed to try and minimize her complete lack of experience for the job and to avoid embarrassing gaffes on topics where she cannot hold her own. The problem however is that in those two interviews, Governor Palin has contradicted herself on a whole slew of policy positions, a fact now being openly advertised in the media.

As for swaying female voters that would otherwise have voted for Hillary Clinton, the consensus here in America is that the Palin impact will be negligible. As one female political commentator put it “…aside from the fact that Clinton and Palin have the same internal plumbing, they have nothing else in common”. Clinton and Palin could not be further apart of the issues, whether they be domestic, social or foreign policy.

McCain, at 72 years old, would be the oldest candidate ever elected to the office of president should he win the election in November. He has a history of health issues and many are openly concerned that should he unexpectedly die, Sarah Palin would ascend to the presidency. The problem is that McCain knows this but he picked her all the same, again displaying poor judgment when he could have chosen a running mate from a far more qualified list that includes Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee or Tom Ridge.

Since John Nance Garner’s comment about the Vice Presidency being nothing more than “a pitcher of warm piss”, thirteen vice presidents have occupied the White House until the election of Dick Cheney in 2000. In the lifetime of the Bush administration, Garner’s characterization of the VP office has been literally turned on its head. The power that Cheney has infused into the office of Vice President has been frightening. The smell of war, scandal, corruption and illegality exude from his door. Americans need to wake up and smell the coffee and realize this before they cast their ballot in November for a VP candidate that has less experience than a mid level executive at a large corporation.