Thursday, November 11, 2010

The Curse of the Mid-Terms...

'Something is rotten in the state of Denmark' - Marcellus to Horatio, Hamlet - Act I

To borrow a Shakespearian political analogy, all is not well within the political hierarchy of the Democratic Party. As feared by many of us within the progressive movement, and in keeping with the decades old trend in off presidential year elections, the party that doesn't currently hold the White House has been swept back to power in the U.S. House of Representatives. Two years after President Obama was handed the biggest crock of economic you know what on a plate by W, and despite trojan work by the White House and the Democratic majority to haul the American economy back from the edge of the proverbial cliff, the speed of recovery, or lack thereof, has proved crucial in deciding who will control at least half of the Congress for the next two years.

As I write, the Republicans stand to gain somwhere in the region of 65 house seats in the 435 member assembly, taking their number to approximately 243 in advance of the official swearing in ceremony for the 112th Congress in the first week of January 2011. To give these results some historical context, neither party has experienced such a significant swing against it since the elections of 1946; surpassing even the 54 seat swing in membership from the Democrats to the Republicans in 1994 - Newt Gingrich's 'Contract with America' you might recall.

Perhaps this is an obvious statement but these results are not good news for President Obama and don't augur well for him in terms of advancing his agenda of change during the remaining two years of his term as President. After two years of obstructionist politics and being the party of 'No', we will now finally see if the Repiblicans have either the ability or the guts to co-govern. The so-called Tea Party patriots, a couple of whom were elected during this election cycle (more anon) and whose mantra is to oppose everything that the federal government represents, will now have to decide whether they will stand by their so-called principals or actually display some bipartisanship in government. It was easy for them to stand on the sidelines and oppose everything that the Democrats have done to fix the horrific mess that was created by eight years of disastrous Republican rule when you know that voter resentment is on your side and you don't have any practical and workable solutions of your own to present. If you think that the political gridlock in Washington D.C. during the past two years was bad, brace yourself for Congress to potentially come to a standstill once John Boehner becomes the Majority Leader in January.

Riding on the coattails of President Obama's landslide victory in 2008, Democrats increased their majorities to record numbers in both the House and Senate that year. On the first day of Obama's presidency, Democrats had a 77 seat majority in the House and an 18 seat majority in the Senate (if you include the 2 Independent senators who traditionally have caucused with the Democrats). Notwithstanding these majorities, the Democrats passed 240 legislative bills in the House which ultimately died on the floor of the Senate because of almost absolute Republican opposition and because the Democrats didn't have a 60 vote filibuster proof majority in the 100 seat Senate. How is that for bipartisanship for you? Now, the same Republican leadership who didn't lift a finger to aid the Democrats to try and right the ship of state in a time of unprecedented economic and social upheavel in the country, are now the same folks who are saying that because the voters have given them back the majority, they (the GOP) will do the right thing by the American people. I remain unconvinced.

As you might expect, many Republican leaders have pointed to the popularity (or perceived popularity) of the Tea Party, for many of the gains they made in this year's mid-terms. When you analyze the numbers, the candidates and the winners and losers, the reality is actually somewhat different. I completely agree that the anger at government that was fermented and crystalized by the Tea Party movement helped greatly to energize the Republican base in a year when no matter what Democrats did, they were in for a hiding. The actual number of true Tea Party candidates however, (who ultimately ran as Republicans) that were elected this year, can be counted on two hands. Notable examples include Rand Paul in Kentucky and Marco Rubio in Florida, both of whom will be going to the Senate. On the other hand, in some cases Tea Party candidates who actually defeated establishment GOP candidates in their respective Republican primaries earlier this year ended up weakening the chances the Republicans might have had in that state to win back a seat from the Democrats. Examples include Christine O'Donnell in Delaware and Sharron Angle in Nevada.

If there is any good news to come out of these elections it is that the Democrats still retain control of the United States Senate (albeit with a smaller majority) and President Obama's popularity remains pretty consistent, in the mid to high 50%'s. The conventional wisdom among the political cognoscenti is that President Obama remains reasonably popular going into the second half of his (hopefully) first term. The message that was delivered, loud and clear, at the polls this November is that both parties in Congress must stop the bickering, end the gridlock within Washington and get on with doing the business of the American people. We shall see.

Oh, and by the way. Twenty eight years after he last served as Governor, Jerry Brown easily defeated former eBay CEO Meg Whitman to once again become Governor of California at the ripe old age of 72. Current San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom was elected to be Lieutenant Governor - with an eye no doubt to succeeding Brown in due course. Proposition 19 - the initiative to legalize marijuana in California, lost by a vote of 54% - 46%, going down by a half million votes, out of a total of 7.4M cast.

P.S. The San Francisco Giants won their first baseball World Series this month since the club relocated to California from New York in 1957. The city is alive - Go Giants!!

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